Yield curve hysteria, as viewed by FT's Sonal Desai

clock • 2 min read

The recent inversion of the US Treasury yield curve has had the financial press in a bit of a frenzy. I see a glaring contradiction in the fact that so many market participants and commentators emphasise the heightened level of economic uncertainty, and at the same time seem to consider flat or inverted yield curves as fool proof predictors of a recession. I see this as completely misguided—I think the yield curve is telling us nothing about what lies ahead for the real economy. Yes, protracted uncertainty on trade is having some impact on business sentiment. But we have lived with tr...

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