Four investment scenarios on likely Ukraine war outcomes  

Syz Bank chief investment officer Charles-Henry Monchau outlines four key scenarios in the Russian battle over Ukraine and each of their investment implications on growth, inflation, monetary policy as well as on the performance of the main asset classes. The war between Russia and Ukraine will soon enter a third week. We consider four scenarios to examine the potential implications for the global economy and financial markets. These scenarios have different geopolitical narratives. In the first scenario (medium to high probability), a Russian military victory leads to an unstable Ukr...