The most likely outcome of the upcoming UK referendum on EU membership is that the country remains in rather than leaves, according to a report from SEB.
The Nordic bank says there is a 65% probability the UK will vote to remain.
In its second scenario, for which it sees a 25% probability, there will be a ‘soft no’ resulting in renegotiation before the UK decides to remain.
The third scenario is for a ‘hard no’, which sees the UK exit. SEB sees a 10% probability of this happening.
SEB also puts foward estimates of the impact on sterling, UK GDP growth rates, and yields on UK 10-year government bonds per each of the possible outcomes.
Click here to read the full report: Brexit_final