Filippo Stefanini is head of Hedge Funds & Product Management at Eurizon Capital SGR, and a member of InvestmentEurope’s Editorial Board.
In April 2017 he commented on the following question:
Q. Frexit: What is your view of the level of risk attached to French assets?
A. According to polls, a victory by Marine Le Pen is unlikely with the usual high turnout of past French presidential elections.
Presidential elections will be followed by parliamentary elections in June and it’s unlikely that the Front National will have the majority in Parliament.
If Marine Le Pen wins it will be hard for her to call a referendum for Frexit and even if she calls it, it will be very difficult for her to win the referendum.
On the other hand, if Marine Le Pen does not win the presidential elections, I think that European equities will appear undervalued compared to US equities.
The spread between the OAT and Bund will compress to normal levels, and I think that after French and German election, hopefully we will see an acceleration off the project of the European Union.
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