BBVA trims Spain GDP forecasts as expected growth for H1 fades
BBVA Research has cut growth expectations for the Spanish economy in 2018 and 2019 after the country’s GDP presented a worse evolution than estimated in the first half of the year.
BBVA’s latest report predicts Spain’s economy will grow up to 2.6% in 2018 compared to the 2.9% predicted three months ago. It also foresees a rise of 2.4% in 2019, one tenth less compared to the same period.
The downward revision is explained by the lower growth in exports and private consumption experienced during the first six months of the year.
However, the report also highlights that there are several factors likely to keep growth relatively high, for instance, the exports of goods that could show an acceleration given the continued recovery in the main trading partners, the recent depreciation of the euro against the dollar, the expectations of a partial reversal in the current trend in the price of oil and the absence of inflationary pressures at the domestic level.
In addition, investment, whether in construction or in machinery and equipment, shows relatively high growth.
All the above was indicated in the latest Situation Spain report, presented by Jorge Sicilia, chief economist of the BBVA Group and director of BBVA Research , Rafael Doménech, head of Macroeconomic Analysis at BBVA Research, and Miguel Cardoso, chief economist of Spain and Portugal.
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