As millions of British expats across the world come to terms with the impact of the plummeting pound on their lives, following the UK’s decision to leave the EU, Thailand-based expat adviser Paul Gambles is predicting that the long-term prognosis for the UK – and global economy – is far better as a result of the vote.
Gambles (pictured), who is himself a UK expat, as well as co-founder and an investment specialist at Bangkok-based MBMG Group, admits that a difficult period has begun, but predicted that the vote to leave the UK was a step towards “global normalisation” and “the greatest economic re-adjustment that will occur in our lifetimes”.
” [It is] not a huge step at this stage, but the first step in a journey of many, many miles,” he added.
“The second step was the unraveling of the UK government, encapsulated by Cameron’s highly choreographed resignation.
“Still ahead lie the implosion of the UK’s Union, followed by the gradual break-up of the European Union, followed by the ‘Minsky Moment’ that will lead to the greatest economic re-adjustment that will occur in our lifetimes.”
“In the short term, there will be carnage, although the immediate reaction of the Bank of England indicates the extent to which it will attempt to manipulate market reactions” said Gambles. “Ultimately when the dust settles we’ll see the markets rebound from the overreaction that has already started, and will continue at least a little while.”
Gambles believes the immediate, “huge volatility and considerable pain” that will follow the Leave vote over the next few years will be followed with a global economy that will be “far, far, far stronger” than it has been until now.
It’s for this reason, he says, that he thinks the result, ultimately, represents “great news for the UK, for Europe and for the global economy – actually for all participants, including the likes of China and Germany, the places that will suffer the most in the medium term.”
Worries about changes in the way they are taxed, domicile issues and the possibility that British expats living in Europe may see their UK pensions “frozen”, the way they are in certain other non-EU countries, are also on the minds of expatriates, as voters back home narrowly-backed the UK’s EU exit. The final vote was 51.9% in favour of leaving the EU to 48.1% in favour of remaining.
Nearly all of the experts offering up their views to the world’s media this morning have echoed the view that the Leave vote will have a massive impact, beginning immediately – not just across the Eurozone but around the world – and lasting for years to come.
Few are as likely to be as affected by the result of the vote, though, many say, as retired British expats who rely on pensions that are paid to them in pounds sterling.
Residents of Gibraltar are also feeling pressure, as Spain, which has long claimed the British overseas territory for itself, has been arguing in the run-up to yesterday’s referendum that a Leave vote would give it the right to take charge. This morning, the BBC reported that the Spanish government had “called for joint sovereignty over Gibraltar” in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU.
It also quoted Spain’s acting Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo as saying, today, in response to the Leave result: “The Spanish flag on the Rock is much closer than before.”Brexit